Why Atletico Madrid Are Willing To Break The Bank For Julian Alvarez

It could be the biggest transfer deal of the summer. Manchester City are selling Argentina international Julian Alvarez to LaLiga’s Atletico Madrid. Reports suggest the fee is around $82 million plus another $22 million in add-ons, making Alvarez Manchester City’s record sale. This deal surpasses all other transfers so far this summer and would be Atletico’s second-most expensive signing ever, behind Joao Felix from Benfica in 2019.

Alvarez's move to Atletico Madrid is part of an expensive rebuild by the Spanish club, which has already seen the acquisitions of defender Robin Le Normand from Real Sociedad and striker Alexander Sorloth from Villarreal. They are also eyeing Chelsea midfielder Conor Gallagher.

Manchester City's Profit and Alvarez's Value

Manchester City stand to make a significant profit on Alvarez, who they bought from River Plate for around $18 million in 2022. But why is Atletico Madrid paying so much for Julian Alvarez?

Strikers are generally expensive because goals are invaluable. Clubs will always pay top dollar for a striker who can score at the highest level. For example, West Ham United recently paid around $35 million for German international Niclas Fullkrug, who has a similar goalscoring record but is seven years older than Alvarez and will have little sell-on value in a few seasons.

Atletico Madrid's Striker Needs

Atletico Madrid are in dire need of a top-quality striker. Last season, they finished fourth in LaLiga and scored only 70 league goals, which was 15 fewer than third-place Girona. No Atletico players were among the league’s top five goalscorers. Their top scorer, Antoine Griezmann, who netted 16 goals last season, is 33 years old and might see a drop in form soon. Additionally, they sold their second-highest goalscorer, Alvaro Morata, who scored 15 LaLiga goals last season, to AC Milan.

Alvarez’s Worth and Potential

Despite Alvarez’s price tag, some argue he is worth even more. The CIES Football Observatory estimated Alvarez's transfer value at around $183 million in June 2024, nearly double what Atletico could end up paying. Alvarez was the seventh most valuable player on the CIES list, topped by Real Madrid’s Jude Bellingham and Manchester City’s Erling Haaland.

At 24 years old, Alvarez is entering his peak years. City are willing to let him go to avoid keeping unhappy players, but his contract with Manchester City would have run until 2028, adding to his transfer value.

Comparisons to Joao Felix

Given Alvarez’s price tag, comparisons to Joao Felix, who was bought for a massive fee but underperformed, are inevitable. Unlike Felix, Alvarez has proven he can perform at the highest level. He scored 19 goals and provided 13 assists last season while adapting to different positions to accommodate City’s other star players.

If Alvarez played as a center forward consistently, his output could be even higher. According to Transfermarkt, he scored an average of 0.63 goals per 90 minutes as a striker, compared to 0.43 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes in all positions last year.

Challenges and Expectations

One challenge for Alvarez is that Pep Guardiola didn’t often play him in the biggest games last season. When he did play against top clubs, he didn’t always score. His notable goals in 2023/24 came against Brighton, Newcastle United, and RB Leipzig, though he did score against Real Madrid and Liverpool in 2022/23.

Alvarez is leaving Manchester City to play more in significant games, like the latter stages of the UEFA Champions League, rather than staying in Erling Haaland’s shadow. He could be Atletico’s main striker for the next seven or eight years, likely improving further. His high price tag reflects the goals he is expected to bring to Atletico over that time.