Adaptation Gap Report: Climate Aid Must Rise Tenfold

The UN's new Adaptation Gap Report says developing countries need about US$305 billion a year by 2035 to adapt to climate change, roughly ten times the international public money they now receive. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) published the report on Wednesday, November 4, days before the COP31 climate summit opens in Antalya, Türkiye.

Key findings of the Adaptation Gap Report

The 2026 report is titled "Ready? Not". It finds that money for adaptation, such as flood defences, drought-resistant crops and early warning systems, is growing far too slowly. Key figures from UNEP:

• Needs: about $305 billion a year by 2035 for developing countries, not counting private-sector needs, which could nearly double the total.
• Current aid: international public adaptation finance was $28.2 billion to $31.7 billion in 2024, only about $1 billion more than in 2023.
• COP30 goal: tripling adaptation finance by 2035 would give $85 billion to $120 billion a year, covering only 20% to 29% of needs after inflation.
• Private money: could reduce the gap by only 15% to 20%.

"The world is not ready"

"The world is not ready to adapt to current climatic conditions, never mind what overshoot of 1.5°C will bring," UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen said. She urged governments at COP31 to agree stronger action on both cutting emissions and adapting to the impacts already being felt.

At COP30 in Belém, Brazil, last year, countries agreed in the "Global Mutirão" decision to aim to at least triple adaptation finance by 2035. UNEP says that even if this aim is met, most of the gap will remain, because needs are rising as the planet warms and costs go up with inflation.

The report says the Glasgow goal of doubling adaptation finance to about $40 billion by 2025 may still be met, partly because multilateral development banks are likely to have increased lending last year.

Some progress, but small

UNEP found a few positive signs. Finance flowing between developing countries, known as South-South cooperation, rose from $3.8 billion in 2019 to $9.6 billion in 2024. If tripled funding were focused on the least developed countries and small island states, it could cover 49% to 83% of their needs.

Demand is far ahead of supply, however. In the first funding round of the new Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, countries asked for about $2.8 billion, against an envelope of $342 million.

Why it matters for Thailand

Southeast Asia is among the regions most exposed to stronger storms, heavy rain and rising seas. Thailand has faced repeated flood warnings this rainy season, including in Phuket and the north. The findings will shape debates at COP31 on how much rich countries should pay to help nations like Thailand prepare. Read the full findings from UNEP.

What happens at COP31

Negotiators at COP31 will now have to decide how to turn the COP30 pledge to triple adaptation finance into real money, and who will pay. The Adaptation Gap Report gives poorer countries fresh evidence for their case that current aid is far too low. Richer governments, many of them under budget pressure, will be asked to explain how they plan to close even part of the gap. For vulnerable communities, the outcome will decide whether new flood defences, warning systems and climate-resilient farming arrive in time.

Related: Thailand prepares for major storm impact, Phuket heavy rain warning, northern Thailand floods and extreme weather in Southeast Asia.

Photo: flooding in Bangladesh, 2016, by Nahid.rajbd / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 3.0. File photo illustrating the Adaptation Gap Report.