Thailand Credit Rating: S&P Keeps BBB+, Stable Outlook

The Thailand credit rating has been affirmed at BBB+ with a stable outlook by S&P Global Ratings, the agency said on Wednesday, November 4. S&P pointed to the country's strong external position, while warning that slow growth and political uncertainty still hold the rating back, the Bangkok Post reported.

What S&P decided

The agency kept all of Thailand's main ratings unchanged. Key points:

• Foreign currency: BBB+ long-term and A-2 short-term.
• Local currency: A- long-term and A-2 short-term.
• Outlook: stable.
• Transfer and convertibility assessment: A.

BBB+ is an investment-grade rating, two notches above BBB-, the lowest investment-grade level. A stable outlook means S&P sees little chance of a change in the next year or two. Ratings like this guide global investors when they buy Thai government bonds, and they also influence the borrowing costs of Thai banks and big companies that raise money abroad.

S&P last affirmed the rating in June. The new decision means all three major agencies, Fitch, Moody's and S&P, now hold Thailand on a stable outlook.

Why the Thailand credit rating held steady

S&P said Thailand remains a net external creditor with large foreign exchange reserves. It expects the current account to be roughly balanced in 2026, then return to a surplus of about 2.1% to 2.4% of GDP from 2027.

Growth is the weak spot. The agency forecasts the economy will expand by 2.3% in 2026, after 2.4% in 2025, and average around 2.4% to 2.5% a year through 2029. That is slow compared with many regional peers.

S&P expects GDP per capita to rise from about US$8,000 in 2024 to roughly US$9,100 in 2026, helped partly by a stronger baht.

Debt and politics are the risks

Government borrowing is rising. S&P expects net general government debt to grow from about 40% of GDP at the end of 2025 to around 47% by 2029. It forecasts the annual rise in net debt at 4.2% of GDP in 2026 and about 3.5% a year on average to 2029.

The agency also said political uncertainty, including the risk of sudden changes of government, weighs on its view of Thai institutions. It said it could raise the rating if growth improves faster than expected, the fiscal position strengthens and politics become more stable. It could lower it if growth or public finances weaken sharply.

Government welcomes the decision

Finance Minister Ekniti Nitithanprapas said the affirmation shows confidence in the government's economic policy. He said the government is committed to supporting investment in new industries, improving competitiveness and keeping fiscal discipline.

For businesses in Phuket and across Thailand, a stable rating helps keep borrowing costs for the government and large companies in check, at a time when the economy faces weak business sentiment and high fuel costs. Read the full report from the Bangkok Post.

What investors will watch next

Investors will now look for signs that growth can pick up from the forecast 2.3% pace and that government debt stays under control. Any move toward more stable politics could support a future upgrade, while a sharp slowdown or weaker public finances could put the outlook at risk. For now, the affirmation gives the government and Thai companies steady access to global capital markets, and it shows that the main agencies still see Thailand as an investment-grade borrower with strong external finances.

More Thai business news: Thai business sentiment falls in October, Thailand unemployment rises, truckers protest diesel prices and Thailand EV import tax rise.

Photo: central Bangkok skyline by Vyacheslav Argenberg / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY 4.0. File photo illustrating the Thailand credit rating story.