Thailand Unemployment Rises to 1.1%, BoT Warns

Thailand unemployment has climbed to 1.1% from a recent low of 0.8%, and the Bank of Thailand (BoT) says the job market is becoming more fragile. The central bank warned that weaker employment could drag on household spending, the Bangkok Post reported on November 4.

What the central bank said

Don Nakornthab, secretary of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), gave the warning at a press briefing after last week's MPC meeting on October 28. He said the number of insured workers under Section 33 of the Social Security Act who lost their jobs and signed up for unemployment benefits had been rising steadily, although the latest figures show a small dip.

"The labour market warrants monitoring as employment conditions are directly linked to household consumption and debt repayment capacity," he said, according to the Bangkok Post.

Spending forecasts cut

Exports and investment are still supporting growth, but private spending is weaker than expected. The BoT has trimmed several forecasts:

• private consumption growth for 2026 cut to 2.3% from 2.6%;
• without stimulus measures, consumption growth would be only about 1.6% this year;
• growth of just 1.7% is expected in 2027, after the co-payment scheme ends this month;
• the boost to GDP from the "Thais Help Thais Plus" co-payment scheme was lowered to 0.4 percentage points from 0.5.

Stimulus as a bridge

Boondhiva Cheewatragoongit of Tris Rating told the Bangkok Post that the co-payment scheme gives short-term support, but households need lasting income growth. Spending under the programme reached about 162 billion baht by September, of which 93 billion baht came from the government and 69 billion baht from consumers.

Tris Rating estimates the first phase, from June to September, added 0.4 percentage points to GDP growth, and the second phase, in October and November, will add about 0.1 point. Ms Boondhiva said the scheme should be seen "as a bridge" to recovery, not a replacement for stronger household finances.

Household debt still high

Household debt remains a major brake on spending even with lower interest rates. It fell to 85.2% of GDP in the second quarter from 86.7% at the end of last year, but is still high next to neighbours. Figures for 2025 cited by the Bangkok Post put Malaysia at 84.7%, Singapore at 51.6%, Cambodia at 25.3%, Indonesia at 15% and the Philippines at 13.6%.

Why it matters for Phuket

Phuket's economy depends heavily on tourism, but domestic visitors and local shoppers still matter for many small businesses. Weaker job security and high debt can mean fewer weekend trips and less spending in shops and restaurants, so businesses should watch the jobs data closely.

Related: Thai business sentiment falls in October and new Bank of Thailand rules on BNPL and gold.

Photo: Bang Khun Phrom Palace in the Bank of Thailand compound, Bangkok, by Kriengsak Jirasirirojanakorn / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0. File photo.