COP31 climate talks open in Antalya amid tensions

COP31 climate talks opened on Monday, 9 November, in Antalya, Turkey, where negotiators from nearly 200 countries face two weeks of tough discussions on cutting emissions and funding poorer nations, with few major breakthroughs expected amid an oil price shock and wars involving Iran and Ukraine, AFP reported via the Bangkok Post.

More than 100,000 people are expected at the sprawling expo centre in the Mediterranean seaside city over the next two weeks. The talks come in a year of punishing heatwaves in Europe, wildfires in Indonesia and a glacier collapse that triggered devastating floods in Nepal.

What is at stake at the COP31 climate talks

An exceptionally strong El Nino is forecast to peak later this year, adding to extreme weather and possibly helping make 2026 or 2027 the hottest year on record. In September the United Nations warned that global temperatures were on course to exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, breaching the most ambitious goal of the Paris Agreement.

"Global leaders must pull us back from the brink and commit to rapidly transitioning away from fossil fuels and expanding renewable energy, an imperative reinforced by the current energy affordability crisis," said Rachel Cleetus, climate programme director at the Union of Concerned Scientists.

An "implementation COP" with an unusual set-up

Turkey is presiding over the conference, while Australia leads the negotiations under an arrangement that settled a dispute over who would host. The partners have branded the meeting the "implementation COP", focused on turning past pledges into concrete action.

Alongside the formal talks, Turkey is promoting an "action agenda" of non-binding pledges on topics from artificial intelligence to waste management. Its centrepiece is an electrification drive to raise the share of global energy demand met by electricity from around 20% today to 35% by 2035.

That could cause friction. The European Union has called for "clean" electrification, a term that may spark debate over the role of fossil fuels in the Turkish plan.

The main fault lines going into the talks:

• Fossil fuels: countries agreed at COP28 in Dubai in 2023 to transition away from fossil fuels, but COP30 ended with no explicit mention of them after oil producers objected. Brazil instead produced a voluntary roadmap.
• Finance: developing nations want rich countries to deliver promised funds; a senior EU official warned there would be "no political will" for extra pledges.
• Adaptation: African countries want the agenda to include tripling adaptation finance for measures such as sea walls and drought-resistant crops.
• The United States: President Donald Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement and has sent no officials, though a US congressional delegation will attend.

Geopolitics and energy prices loom over Antalya

Observers say the US war with Iran and Russia's war in Ukraine are complicating cooperation. Energy markets have been volatile: oil prices plunged more than 8% after Democrats won the US Congress in last week's US midterm elections, and Democrats in the congressional delegation are arriving in upbeat mood. A new round of Ukraine peace talks in Abu Dhabi is also due this week.

Despite the gloomy backdrop, Azerbaijan's chief negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev told AFP that "the mood is very good". Countries need to turn "this positive spirit of being in a favourable environment into concrete, successful results", he said.

Why it matters for Thailand

For Thailand and the rest of Southeast Asia, adaptation money and stronger emissions cuts are not abstract issues. Southern provinces including Phuket are already under a heavy rain alert this week, and decisions in Antalya on finance and fossil fuels will shape how much help vulnerable countries get to cope with extreme weather.

Phuket Times will report on the outcome when the conference closes in two weeks.

Read the AFP report published by the Bangkok Post for more.

Photo: The Expo 2016 tower in Antalya, the Turkish city hosting the COP31 climate talks (Ahzaryamed via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0).