Lowest Level in 27 Months
Thai consumer confidence fell for the fourth straight month in May 2025, reaching its lowest point in over two years, driven by fears of looming US tariffs and a faltering economy. The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce reported a significant drop in public optimism, reflecting widespread economic concerns.
Survey Highlights Economic Woes
Index Drops to 54.2
The university’s consumer confidence index slid to 54.2 in May from 55.4 the previous month, signaling persistent pessimism. Thanavath Phonvichai, the university president, noted that consumers perceive no immediate signs of economic recovery, underscoring the severity of Thailand’s current challenges.
US Tariffs Threaten Economy
36% Tariff Looms Large
Thailand faces a potential 36% US tariff if it cannot secure a reduction before the July 9 moratorium deadline, with a 10% tariff currently applied. The absence of active negotiations with the US has heightened anxiety, as officials have yet to confirm when talks will commence.
Uncertainty in Trade Talks
Negotiation Success in Doubt
Thanavath expressed skepticism about Thailand’s ability to negotiate a favorable tariff reduction in time, citing unclear timelines and limited progress. The lack of clarity in diplomatic efforts has fueled concerns about the nation’s trade prospects and economic stability.
Economic Impact Projections
Billions in Losses Expected
The potential economic fallout from US tariffs could cost Thailand 150 billion to 200 billion baht in lost exports and tourism revenue, according to estimates. These losses are expected to reverberate across key sectors, exacerbating the country’s economic slowdown.
Revised Growth Forecasts
Outlook Slashed for 2025
The National Economic and Social Development Council recently cut its 2025 growth forecast to a range of 1.3% to 2.3%, down by a full percentage point. The agency warned that the tariff’s impact could persist for two years, further straining Thailand’s economic recovery efforts.
