KResearch Forecasts Significant Fluctuations for Thai Baht

The Kasikorn Research Centre (KResearch) has predicted that the Thai baht will experience notable fluctuations throughout 2025, forecasting a depreciation to 35.50 baht per US dollar by the end of the year. This projection is influenced by various factors, particularly potential pressures arising from the economic policies of President-elect Donald Trump.

Current Exchange Rate and Historical Context

As of the close of 2024, the baht was valued at 34.11 baht per US dollar. Although this rate is similar to the year-end figure for 2023, it reflects significant volatility, with a daily exchange-rate range showing a difference of 5.03 baht between its strongest point at 32.15 baht and its weakest at 37.18 baht during 2024.

Impact of US Federal Reserve Policies

The fluctuations in the baht’s value in 2024 were closely tied to changes in the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Initially, high interest rates were maintained to combat inflation, but by late third quarter, indications of potential rate cuts began to emerge. These shifts caused the baht to weaken in early 2024, strengthen in the third quarter, and then depreciate again following Trump’s election victory.

Key Factors Influencing the Baht in 2025

KResearch has identified three primary factors that will shape the performance of the baht in 2025:

1. US Economic Policies: The direction of interest rates set by the Federal Reserve and Trump’s economic strategies are expected to exert significant influence on the baht.
2. China’s Economic Slowdown: A continued deceleration in China’s economy may add pressure on regional currencies, including the baht.
3. Thailand’s Economic Fundamentals: Weak economic fundamentals and risks associated with a sluggish recovery could lead to further depreciation of the currency.

Uncertainty Surrounding US Policies

The uncertainty surrounding US economic policies is anticipated to weigh heavily on the Thai baht in 2025, particularly during Trump’s first 100 days in office as his administration outlines new trade strategies. Escalating trade tensions between the US and China may also affect regional currencies, impacting Thailand’s export performance and delaying economic recovery.

Expected Intensification of Depreciation

KResearch forecasts that the depreciation of the baht will likely accelerate in the second half of 2025, coinciding with the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle. Trump’s preference for a weaker US dollar adds another layer of unpredictability, potentially increasing volatility across global currency and financial markets.

Preparing for Market Volatility

Amid these challenges, KResearch anticipates heightened market volatility for the Thai baht, projecting it could depreciate to 35.50 per US dollar by year-end 2025. Stakeholders are advised to closely monitor these developments as they navigate an uncertain economic landscape influenced by both domestic and international factors.

WHO Prequalification for GPO’s Efavirenz Production

The World Health Organization (WHO) has officially certified the Government Pharmaceutical Organization’s (GPO) facility in Pathum Thani under the WHO Prequalification Programme (WHO PQ) for the production of the antiretroviral drug Efavirenz. This certification marks a significant milestone as it is the first of its kind in Thailand and the ASEAN region.

Importance of WHO Certification for Efavirenz

GPO director Mingkwan Suphanpong stated that this certification ensures that Efavirenz tablets manufactured by the GPO remain on the WHO Prequalified List. The WHO had previously approved GPO’s request to include Efavirenz on its list in 2018, following an application submitted in 2016.

Role of Efavirenz in HIV Treatment

Efavirenz is a critical medication prescribed to all individuals diagnosed with HIV. It is commonly used in combination with tenofovir/emtricitabine for adults, adolescents, and children. Additionally, it plays a role in post-exposure prophylaxis regimens to reduce the risk of HIV infection among those exposed to significant risk.

Commitment to Quality and Safety

Dr. Mingkwan emphasized that this certification reflects GPO’s dedication to quality and safety, ensuring that Thai citizens have access to effective medications comparable to original formulations. The certification also opens doors for GPO to register the drug in other countries, enhancing export opportunities.

Compliance with WHO Standards

The certification followed a rigorous inspection conducted from August 12-16 last year, assessing compliance with WHO standards regarding manufacturing processes, production support systems, laboratory practices, and quality management. This certification is valid for three years.

Advancements in Generic Drug Production

Dr. Mingkwan highlighted that GPO’s success in producing Efavirenz exemplifies its capabilities in developing generic drugs, particularly essential medicines vital for the healthcare system. Generic medications provide affordable treatment options for Thais while maintaining international credibility.

Future Directions for GPO

To continue benefiting patients after original drug patents expire, Dr. Mingkwan stressed the importance of ongoing research and development of generic drugs by GPO. This proactive approach ensures immediate access to affordable alternatives once patents lapse.

Enhancing Quality of Life for HIV Patients

The recent success of GPO also contributes to improving the quality of life for HIV patients, allowing them to live normal lives akin to non-HIV individuals. According to WHO guidelines, individuals living with HIV who maintain an undetectable viral load pose no risk of transmitting the virus to others.

Advocacy for PLHIV Rights

Jarunee Siriphan, director of the Foundation for Action on Inclusion Rights (Fair), emphasized the significance of the “undetectable equals untransmittable” (U=U) campaign. This public health initiative empowers people living with HIV (PLHIV) by promoting their health and potential without stigma.

Call for Public Health Integration

While acknowledging WHO’s stance on U=U, Jarunee urged the Public Health Ministry to officially certify this approach and integrate it into public policy. She cautioned against employers exploiting this concept by demanding proof of viral suppression during recruitment processes, which could violate individual rights.

A Step Forward in HIV Treatment Accessibility

The WHO certification of GPO’s facility represents a pivotal advancement in Thailand’s efforts to enhance access to effective HIV treatments. By fostering an environment that supports both medical innovation and patient rights, Thailand is making strides towards a healthier future for all individuals living with HIV.

Ministry of Education Revokes Hairstyle Regulations

On January 5, 2025, Thailand’s Ministry of Education announced the revocation of regulations governing student hairstyles in public schools. Ministry spokesman Siripong Angkasakulkiat confirmed that individual schools are now authorized to establish their own hairstyle guidelines as they see fit.

New Autonomy for Schools in Hairstyle Decisions

The ministry’s decision, published in the Royal Gazette last year, empowers schools to create hairstyle policies based on input from teachers, students, and parents. Siripong emphasized that schools must seek approval from their management committees before implementing any specific hairstyle rules.

Abolishment of Standardized Hairstyles

The previously mandated “ear-length” and three-sided shaved hairstyles are no longer considered standard. Siripong stated, “There are no longer any stipulations regarding the length or style of students’ hair,” allowing each school to tailor its own approach.

Encouraging Student Participation in Policy Formation

Schools are encouraged to foster open discussions among students regarding hairstyle policies. Siripong highlighted the importance of creating an environment where students can voice their opinions constructively.

Focus on Student Rights and Welfare

Education Minister Permpoon Chidchob is prioritizing student rights by providing support through the Semapithak Centre, which aims to guide student behavior while respecting their freedoms. The ministry believes that maintaining discipline should not come at the expense of human rights.

Balancing Discipline with Human Rights

Siripong reiterated that while discipline is essential, it must coexist with respect for students’ rights. The ministry aims to create policies that promote opportunities, uphold respect, and reduce instances of bullying within schools.

A Shift Towards Individual Expression

This regulatory change marks a significant step towards allowing students in Thailand greater freedom of expression through their hairstyles. As schools adapt to these new guidelines, the focus will be on fostering a supportive and inclusive environment for all students.