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Thai Baht Projected to Depreciate to 35.50 per US Dollar by Year-End 2025

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KResearch Forecasts Significant Fluctuations for Thai Baht

The Kasikorn Research Centre (KResearch) has predicted that the Thai baht will experience notable fluctuations throughout 2025, forecasting a depreciation to 35.50 baht per US dollar by the end of the year. This projection is influenced by various factors, particularly potential pressures arising from the economic policies of President-elect Donald Trump.

Current Exchange Rate and Historical Context

As of the close of 2024, the baht was valued at 34.11 baht per US dollar. Although this rate is similar to the year-end figure for 2023, it reflects significant volatility, with a daily exchange-rate range showing a difference of 5.03 baht between its strongest point at 32.15 baht and its weakest at 37.18 baht during 2024.

Impact of US Federal Reserve Policies

The fluctuations in the baht’s value in 2024 were closely tied to changes in the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Initially, high interest rates were maintained to combat inflation, but by late third quarter, indications of potential rate cuts began to emerge. These shifts caused the baht to weaken in early 2024, strengthen in the third quarter, and then depreciate again following Trump’s election victory.

Key Factors Influencing the Baht in 2025

KResearch has identified three primary factors that will shape the performance of the baht in 2025:

  1. US Economic Policies: The direction of interest rates set by the Federal Reserve and Trump’s economic strategies are expected to exert significant influence on the baht.
  2. China’s Economic Slowdown: A continued deceleration in China’s economy may add pressure on regional currencies, including the baht.
  3. Thailand’s Economic Fundamentals: Weak economic fundamentals and risks associated with a sluggish recovery could lead to further depreciation of the currency.
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Uncertainty Surrounding US Policies

The uncertainty surrounding US economic policies is anticipated to weigh heavily on the Thai baht in 2025, particularly during Trump’s first 100 days in office as his administration outlines new trade strategies. Escalating trade tensions between the US and China may also affect regional currencies, impacting Thailand’s export performance and delaying economic recovery.

Expected Intensification of Depreciation

KResearch forecasts that the depreciation of the baht will likely accelerate in the second half of 2025, coinciding with the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle. Trump’s preference for a weaker US dollar adds another layer of unpredictability, potentially increasing volatility across global currency and financial markets.

Preparing for Market Volatility

Amid these challenges, KResearch anticipates heightened market volatility for the Thai baht, projecting it could depreciate to 35.50 per US dollar by year-end 2025. Stakeholders are advised to closely monitor these developments as they navigate an uncertain economic landscape influenced by both domestic and international factors.

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Alarming Red Tide Surge Endangers Marine Life in Thailand’s Gulf

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Red Tide Phenomenon Threatens Aquatic Ecosystems

Expert Warns of Potential Marine Devastation

A recent surge in red tide occurrences has raised serious concerns about the health of marine ecosystems in the Gulf of Thailand. The phenomenon, characterized by a rapid increase in certain plankton species, poses a significant threat to aquatic life and local industries.

Seasonal Pattern of Harmful Algal Blooms

Oxygen Depletion Risks Marine Biodiversity

According to Natthawadee Bantiwiwatkul, director of the marine research center, the red tide phenomenon typically occurs from February to April and October to December each year. These plankton blooms can drastically reduce oxygen levels in the water, potentially leading to mass fish deaths and disrupting the delicate balance of marine ecosystems.

Historical Context and Geographic Spread

Coastal Regions Face Recurring Challenges

Reports of red tide occurrences have been documented in various coastal provinces, including Prachuap Khiri Khan and Chumphon from 2019 to 2024, and in Surat Thani from 2011 to 2024. This widespread and persistent nature of the phenomenon underscores the need for comprehensive monitoring and management strategies.

Impact on Local Industries and Tourism

Authorities Urge Caution and Vigilance

The center has called upon relevant agencies to closely monitor the situation, advising tourism operators and locals to avoid water activities to prevent potential skin irritation. Aquatic farmers are also warned to remain vigilant, as the red tide phenomenon can lead to significant losses in fish populations.

Scientific Understanding and Future Outlook

Research Efforts Aim to Mitigate Red Tide Effects

While red tides are natural occurrences, their frequency and intensity may be exacerbated by various factors, including pollution and climate change. Ongoing research aims to better understand the dynamics of these harmful algal blooms and develop effective strategies to mitigate their impact on marine ecosystems and coastal communities. 

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Thailand Prepares for Intense Weather: Summer Storms and Temperature Fluctuations Ahead

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Severe Weather Warning

High-Pressure System Approaches

A strong high-pressure system from China is set to extend over upper Thailand, where hot to very hot conditions currently prevail. This weather pattern is expected to trigger outbreaks of summer storms, accompanied by strong winds and hail in some areas during the initial period.

Temperature Changes

Significant Drops Expected

Following the storms, the Northeast region is anticipated to experience a substantial temperature drop of 5-8°C, along with strong winds. Other regions across Thailand will also see temperature declines of 2-4°C, coupled with similarly strong winds.

Safety Precautions

Public Advisory

Residents in upper Thailand and the upper South are strongly advised to exercise caution during these severe weather conditions. It is recommended to avoid outdoor areas, especially near large trees and unsecured buildings. Farmers are urged to take preventive measures to protect their crops and livestock from potential damage.

Coastal Impacts

Maritime Warnings

The Gulf of Thailand, the South, and the Andaman Sea will be affected by intensifying easterly and southeasterly winds. This is expected to bring increased rainfall and isolated heavy showers to the South from March 17-20. Wave heights in the lower Gulf could reach two to three meters, potentially exceeding three meters in areas experiencing thunderstorms.

Marine Safety

Shipping Advisories

All vessels in the Gulf and Andaman Sea are advised to proceed with extreme caution and avoid areas with thunderstorms. Small boats in the lower Gulf and offshore areas of the Andaman Sea are recommended to remain ashore during this period of increased maritime risk.

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Long-term Weather Outlook

Seasonal Transitions

As Thailand transitions from its hot season into a period of increased storm activity, residents and visitors alike should stay informed about weather updates and adhere to safety guidelines provided by local authorities to navigate this challenging weather period safely.

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Border Pass Operations Resume Amid Security Measures After Sungai Kolok Blasts

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Sungai Kolok Border Pass Services Suspended Due to Attack

Extensive Damage to District Office Compound

The Sungai Kolok district office in Narathiwat province temporarily halted issuing border passes following a devastating attack by separatist insurgents. The explosions caused significant damage to the district office compound, including the auditorium that housed the border pass section. Authorities are working to clear an area behind the conference center to establish a temporary office for border pass issuance.

Attack Details and Impact on Operations

Insurgents Use Car Bomb in Coordinated Assault

On Saturday night, insurgents launched a coordinated attack using a driverless car bomb that exploded near the auditorium. The ground floor of the main district office building was also destroyed, suspending revenue collection operations. At least 10 armed attackers dressed in black threw explosives and fired at defense volunteers before fleeing in a pickup truck.

Border Security Tightened Following Blasts

Malaysian Police Heighten Vigilance Along Border

In response to the attack, Malaysian police have intensified security along the Malaysia-Thailand border. Patrols at illegal crossing points and hotspots have been increased to prevent perpetrators from escaping into Malaysia. Malaysians have been advised to postpone travel to southern Thailand due to heightened risks.

Plans for Temporary Border Pass Office

Efforts Underway to Restore Services

Despite the disruption, applicants can still obtain temporary travel documents at other district offices in Narathiwat province. The Sungai Kolok office is preparing a new location for border pass services behind its conference center. On average, 300 people apply daily for border passes to travel to Malaysia’s Kelantan state.

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Regional Security Overhaul Amid Ramadan Attacks

Authorities Respond to Increased Threats

The Sungai Kolok attack is part of broader violence in Thailand’s southern provinces during Ramadan. Security forces have implemented revised protocols across Narathiwat and Pattani provinces after twin attacks killed five and injured 13 security personnel. Intelligence units are closely monitoring cross-border activities to prevent further incidents.

Public Safety Advisory Issued

Travelers Urged to Exercise Caution

Authorities have recommended postponing non-essential visits to southern Thailand due to ongoing security concerns. Malaysians residing in affected areas are encouraged to register with the Consulate General of Malaysia in Songkhla for safety updates.

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