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Thai Baht Projected to Depreciate to 35.50 per US Dollar by Year-End 2025
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KResearch Forecasts Significant Fluctuations for Thai Baht
The Kasikorn Research Centre (KResearch) has predicted that the Thai baht will experience notable fluctuations throughout 2025, forecasting a depreciation to 35.50 baht per US dollar by the end of the year. This projection is influenced by various factors, particularly potential pressures arising from the economic policies of President-elect Donald Trump.
Current Exchange Rate and Historical Context
As of the close of 2024, the baht was valued at 34.11 baht per US dollar. Although this rate is similar to the year-end figure for 2023, it reflects significant volatility, with a daily exchange-rate range showing a difference of 5.03 baht between its strongest point at 32.15 baht and its weakest at 37.18 baht during 2024.
Impact of US Federal Reserve Policies
The fluctuations in the baht’s value in 2024 were closely tied to changes in the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Initially, high interest rates were maintained to combat inflation, but by late third quarter, indications of potential rate cuts began to emerge. These shifts caused the baht to weaken in early 2024, strengthen in the third quarter, and then depreciate again following Trump’s election victory.
Key Factors Influencing the Baht in 2025
KResearch has identified three primary factors that will shape the performance of the baht in 2025:
- US Economic Policies: The direction of interest rates set by the Federal Reserve and Trump’s economic strategies are expected to exert significant influence on the baht.
- China’s Economic Slowdown: A continued deceleration in China’s economy may add pressure on regional currencies, including the baht.
- Thailand’s Economic Fundamentals: Weak economic fundamentals and risks associated with a sluggish recovery could lead to further depreciation of the currency.
Uncertainty Surrounding US Policies
The uncertainty surrounding US economic policies is anticipated to weigh heavily on the Thai baht in 2025, particularly during Trump’s first 100 days in office as his administration outlines new trade strategies. Escalating trade tensions between the US and China may also affect regional currencies, impacting Thailand’s export performance and delaying economic recovery.
Expected Intensification of Depreciation
KResearch forecasts that the depreciation of the baht will likely accelerate in the second half of 2025, coinciding with the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle. Trump’s preference for a weaker US dollar adds another layer of unpredictability, potentially increasing volatility across global currency and financial markets.
Preparing for Market Volatility
Amid these challenges, KResearch anticipates heightened market volatility for the Thai baht, projecting it could depreciate to 35.50 per US dollar by year-end 2025. Stakeholders are advised to closely monitor these developments as they navigate an uncertain economic landscape influenced by both domestic and international factors.
News
Thailand Cracks Down on Call Centre Scams: Government Takes Action
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Call Centre Crackdown Overview
Government Response to Scams
The Thai government has intensified its efforts to combat call centre scams by vowing to sideline senior officials linked to these operations. This move follows the arrest of two key suspects, Ramil Phanthawong and Thanawut Kanyaphan, who were involved in defrauding the public by impersonating police officers. The government’s commitment reflects a broader strategy to address the cross-border nature of these crimes, which often involve sophisticated technology like AI face-altering tools.
Investigation Details
Cross-Border Challenges
The investigation into Ramil and Thanawut revealed that they were part of a larger gang operating from Cambodia. The suspects were recruited via social media with promises of legitimate employment but were instead forced into scamming activities. The use of advanced technology and international networks complicates efforts to track down masterminds behind such operations. Authorities are working closely with foreign ministries to tackle these challenges effectively
Government Strategy Against Corruption
Action Against Corrupt Officials
In addition to cracking down on call centre gangs, the Thai government is taking steps against corrupt officials who may be involved in or facilitating these scams. Senior officials linked to such activities will be transferred to inactive posts as part of a broader effort to ensure accountability within state agencies. This approach aims not only at addressing immediate issues but also at enhancing transparency and trust in public institutions.
International Cooperation
Combating Cross-Border Crimes
Thailand’s efforts are complemented by international cooperation, particularly with neighboring countries like Myanmar and China. These nations have also been actively combating online scams and gambling through joint operations and information sharing. Such collaboration is crucial for dismantling complex criminal networks that operate across borders using digital platforms.
News
Myanmar’s Energy Crisis: A Path to Sustainable Solutions
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Myanmar is facing a severe energy crisis, marked by recurrent power outages and a dwindling supply of domestic gas. The country’s largest gas field, Yadana, is nearing the end of its operational life, leading to significant reductions in electricity generation capacity. This situation has been exacerbated by the ongoing civil conflict since the military coup in February 2021.
Energy Challenges and Political Implications
Impact on Electricity Generation
The decline in gas production has resulted in a 35% decrease in electricity generation capacity since the coup. This not only affects daily life but also hampers economic activities due to frequent power cuts. The political instability has deterred foreign investors from participating in Myanmar’s energy sector, further complicating efforts to address these challenges.
Infrastructure and Renewable Energy Opportunities
Current Infrastructure Limitations
Myanmar’s electrical grid relies heavily on aging hydropower dams, which struggle to meet growing demand. The mismatch between supply and demand poses significant safety risks and necessitates alternative solutions.
Renewable Energy as a Future Prospect
Transitioning Towards Sustainability
Renewable energy sources like solar power are gaining traction as viable alternatives. Local companies are seeing increased interest from households for solar panel installations despite high initial costs. A shift towards renewable energy could be crucial for rebuilding Myanmar’s economy and addressing its energy crisis sustainably.
Economic Resilience Through Renewable Solutions
International Support for Renewable Development
Partnerships with international organizations are helping strengthen Myanmar’s economic resilience through renewable energy initiatives. These efforts aim to enhance operational capacity while providing sustainable solutions that can mitigate future crises effectively.
Path Forward for Sustainable Growth
Political Stability as a Prerequisite for Progress
A return to civilian rule is essential for implementing effective energy policies that prioritize renewable sources like solar and wind power. Transparent international tenders can help accelerate this transition by making Myanmar a hub for renewable energy within two years.
News
Roi Et Airport Set for Major Upgrade to Boost Regional Aviation
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The Transport Ministry of Thailand has initiated plans to upgrade Roi Et Airport, aiming to enhance its services and infrastructure. This move comes in response to the airport’s increasing passenger traffic, which has reached over 300,000 annually.
Upgrade Objectives
Enhanced Security Measures
The upgrade includes installing advanced security equipment such as dual-view X-ray luggage scanners and automatic LED weapons and explosives detectors. These measures are designed to meet International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) standards, ensuring a safer travel experience for passengers.
Infrastructure Expansion
Runway Extension
A key component of the upgrade is extending the runway from 2,100 meters to 2,500 meters. This expansion will enable the airport to accommodate larger aircraft and handle increased traffic more efficiently. The project is part of a broader plan to transform Roi Et Airport into a customs airport capable of handling charter flights from overseas.
Operational Improvements
Customs Clearance Services
Roi Et Airport will introduce customs clearance services for passengers on international charter flights. This development aims to streamline travel processes and enhance passenger convenience. The airport’s growth benefits nearby provinces like Maha Sarakham, Kalasin, Yasothorn, and Mukdahan by providing better connectivity options.
Future Prospects
Regional Impact by 2030
By completing these upgrades by 2030, Roi Et Airport is poised to become a pivotal hub in northeastern Thailand’s aviation sector. The expansion will not only support regional economic growth but also improve air travel experiences for residents in surrounding areas.
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