Australia cuts commodity revenue forecast after price fall

SYDNEY, Sept 30 (Reuters) – Australia on Monday slightly cut its commodity and energy export revenue forecasts as broad-based commodity price falls and a stronger currency continue to weigh on key government revenue sources.

Australia now expects commodity export revenue to fall to A$372 billion ($256 billion) in the year ending June 30, 2025, down about 10 percent from the A$380 billion forecast in June, according to its official raw materials and energy quarterly report. Revenues reached A$415 billion last year.

The decline is expected to continue, albeit more slowly, through 2026, reaching A$354 billion.

Slowing economic growth in developed countries due to rising interest rates and a slowdown in China, a major source of demand for steel and other raw materials, have led to the decline in commodity prices, the report said. Australia’s largest iron ore exporter has been particularly hard hit by a slowdown in China’s property sector, with prices falling by about a third this year.

The country forecasts iron ore export revenues to fall to A$99 billion in the year to June 30, 2026, from A$138 billion last year.

Prices fell across most of the basket of commodities covered in the report, including metals important for the energy transition such as nickel and lithium.

Falling prices due to a surge in supplies from Indonesia have forced some Australian nickel mines to close.