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Thai Baht Projected to Depreciate to 35.50 per US Dollar by Year-End 2025

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KResearch Forecasts Significant Fluctuations for Thai Baht

The Kasikorn Research Centre (KResearch) has predicted that the Thai baht will experience notable fluctuations throughout 2025, forecasting a depreciation to 35.50 baht per US dollar by the end of the year. This projection is influenced by various factors, particularly potential pressures arising from the economic policies of President-elect Donald Trump.

Current Exchange Rate and Historical Context

As of the close of 2024, the baht was valued at 34.11 baht per US dollar. Although this rate is similar to the year-end figure for 2023, it reflects significant volatility, with a daily exchange-rate range showing a difference of 5.03 baht between its strongest point at 32.15 baht and its weakest at 37.18 baht during 2024.

Impact of US Federal Reserve Policies

The fluctuations in the baht’s value in 2024 were closely tied to changes in the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Initially, high interest rates were maintained to combat inflation, but by late third quarter, indications of potential rate cuts began to emerge. These shifts caused the baht to weaken in early 2024, strengthen in the third quarter, and then depreciate again following Trump’s election victory.

Key Factors Influencing the Baht in 2025

KResearch has identified three primary factors that will shape the performance of the baht in 2025:

  1. US Economic Policies: The direction of interest rates set by the Federal Reserve and Trump’s economic strategies are expected to exert significant influence on the baht.
  2. China’s Economic Slowdown: A continued deceleration in China’s economy may add pressure on regional currencies, including the baht.
  3. Thailand’s Economic Fundamentals: Weak economic fundamentals and risks associated with a sluggish recovery could lead to further depreciation of the currency.

Uncertainty Surrounding US Policies

The uncertainty surrounding US economic policies is anticipated to weigh heavily on the Thai baht in 2025, particularly during Trump’s first 100 days in office as his administration outlines new trade strategies. Escalating trade tensions between the US and China may also affect regional currencies, impacting Thailand’s export performance and delaying economic recovery.

Expected Intensification of Depreciation

KResearch forecasts that the depreciation of the baht will likely accelerate in the second half of 2025, coinciding with the Federal Reserve nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle. Trump’s preference for a weaker US dollar adds another layer of unpredictability, potentially increasing volatility across global currency and financial markets.

Preparing for Market Volatility

Amid these challenges, KResearch anticipates heightened market volatility for the Thai baht, projecting it could depreciate to 35.50 per US dollar by year-end 2025. Stakeholders are advised to closely monitor these developments as they navigate an uncertain economic landscape influenced by both domestic and international factors.

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Transport Ministry Enhances Support for Travelers as Passenger Numbers Surge by 14%

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Significant Increase in Airport Passengers During New Year

The Transport Ministry has directed the Department of Airports (DoA) to implement additional measures to support travelers following a notable increase in passenger numbers during the New Year period. According to Deputy Minister of Transport Manaporn Charoensri, the DoA reported that from December 27 to January 2, a total of 319,275 passengers traveled through airports, marking a 14.12% increase compared to the same timeframe last year.

Overview of Airports Under DoA Management

The DoA oversees 26 airports, primarily handling domestic flights to popular destinations such as KrabiKhon Kaen, and Lampang. Additionally, six major international gateways, including SuvarnabhumiDon Mueang, and Phuket airports, are managed by Airports of Thailand (AoT).

Smooth Transportation Services Reported

Ms. Manaporn noted that public transport services from the airports to cities and tourist attractions operated smoothly during this busy period. Passengers expressed satisfaction with the services provided, which include the “Living Airports” project aimed at enhancing airport experiences by integrating local products and heritage into the airport environment.

Implementation of Enhanced Safety Measures

In response to the increased passenger volume, the ministry has ordered the DoA to introduce more measures to ensure passenger safety and convenience. This includes accelerating the installation of an Explosives Detection System (EDS) at all airports under its jurisdiction. Currently, EDS has been implemented at 22 airports, enhancing security protocols for checked baggage.

Future Plans for Automatic Check-In Systems

The DoA is also set to implement an automatic check-in system designed to expedite the check-in process for travelers. In addition, there are plans to increase the number of daily flights to accommodate rising demand during peak travel periods.

Passenger Statistics from Krabi Airport

According to Danai Raungsorn, DoA director-general, Krabi Airport recorded the highest number of passengers during the New Year holiday, serving 72,620 travelers. Other airports with significant passenger traffic included Udon Thani Airport (41,785), Khon Kaen Airport (33,562), Ubon Ratchathani Airport (31,048), and Surat Thani Airport (29,779).

Commitment to Improving Travel Experience

The Transport Ministry’s proactive measures aim to enhance the travel experience for passengers as air travel demand continues to rise. With ongoing improvements in airport services and safety protocols, travelers can expect a more efficient and enjoyable journey through Thailand’s airports in the coming months.

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Traffic Disruption in Bangkok: Flyover Closed for Orange Line Construction

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Closure of Charan Sanitwong Road Flyover

Motorists are facing significant delays as the flyover crossing Charan Sanitwong Road in the Bangkok Noi district has been closed since 10 PM on Monday. This closure is part of the ongoing construction for the Orange Line electric railway system, specifically for the Bang Khun Non underground station.

Details of the Construction Project

According to Kittikorn Tanpao, Deputy Governor of the Mass Rapid Transit Authority (MRTA), the closure will last for at least two years to facilitate construction work. The underground station will be located beneath the intersection where Charan Sanitwong Road crosses Liap Thang Rotfai Taling Chan Road and Sutthawat Road. Reconstruction of the flyover is scheduled to begin in December 2026, with completion expected by June 2028.

Traffic Management and Alternative Routes

During this closure, only one inbound and one outbound lane will remain open on both Liap Thang Rotfai Taling Chan Road and Sutthawat Road. To mitigate traffic congestion, the MRTA has provided alternative routes for motorists.

Suggested Routes for Travelers

  • To Siriraj Hospital from Ratchapruek Road: Motorists can take Borommaratchachonnani Road, continue to Somdet Phra Pin Klao Road, and then turn onto Arun Amarin Road.
  • Alternatively, they can use Phran Nok–Phutthamonthon Sai 4 Road, followed by Phran Nok Road and then Wang Lang Road to reach their destination.

For those heading to Siriraj Hospital from Liap Thang Rotfai Taling Chan Road, they can turn onto Chim Phli Road, then to Kaeo Ngoen Thong and Soi Charan Sanitwong 35, eventually reaching Wang Lang Road.

Commitment to Public Safety

The MRTA has assured the public that it is committed to minimizing environmental and traffic impacts during this construction phase. The agency is working diligently to ensure that safety protocols are followed while maintaining access for motorists.

As Bangkok undergoes significant infrastructure improvements with the Orange Line project, motorists are advised to plan their routes accordingly to avoid delays. The temporary closure of the Charan Sanitwong flyover highlights the ongoing efforts to enhance public transportation in the city while managing traffic flow effectively.

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600,000 High School Students to Receive Tablets by June 2025

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Education Ministry’s Initiative to Enhance Learning Accessibility

The Thai Education Ministry has announced an ambitious plan to distribute tablets to approximately 600,000 high school students by June 2025. This initiative aims to provide students with the tools they need to learn anytime and anywhere, promoting educational equity across the country.

Details of the Tablet Distribution Plan

Siripong Angkasakulkiat, an assistant to the education minister and ministry spokesman, shared that the tablets are part of a broader effort to reduce educational inequality. The ministry is currently drafting the terms of reference (ToR) for procurement, focusing on ensuring the functionality and effectiveness of the devices. The ToR is expected to be finalized this month, allowing for delivery to commence by late May or early June, coinciding with the start of the 2025 academic year.

Expansion Plans for Future Fiscal Years

Looking ahead, Mr. Siripong indicated that in the 2026 fiscal year, the program will expand to include additional groups of students. This will encompass junior high students at schools where staff will be familiar with managing such devices by that time, as well as all remaining high school students.

Content Development and Device Leasing

The content that will be included in the tablets was developed during the 2024 fiscal year and is set for trial this month. The tablets will be leased by the Education Ministry, ensuring that students have access to up-to-date educational materials.

A Step Towards Modernizing Education

This initiative marks a significant step towards modernizing education in Thailand and addressing disparities in access to learning resources. By equipping students with tablets, the Education Ministry aims to empower them in their educational journeys and prepare them for a digitally-driven future. As this program unfolds, it will be crucial to monitor its implementation and impact on student learning outcomes across the nation.

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