Business

Economists Urge Bank of Thailand to Maintain Independence

Published

2 months ago

October 10, 2024

The independence of the Bank of Thailand (BoT) has become a hot topic as economists stress its vital role in ensuring economic stability and growth for the country. Concerns have been raised about potential external influences on the central bank, and economists are urging policymakers to safeguard its autonomy. This article explores the importance of central bank independence and the ongoing debate around it.

Why Central Bank Independence Matters

Economic Stability and Growth

Economists, such as Nonarit Bisonyabut from the Thai Development Research Institute, emphasize that countries with autonomous central banks generally experience better economic outcomes. These include lower inflation rates, more stable economies, and stronger overall economic growth. Maintaining independence allows the central bank to operate based on academic and empirical evidence, free from political interference.

Global Examples of Central Bank Autonomy

Globally, nations with independent central banks tend to have more consistent and effective monetary policies. The Federal Reserve in the United States and the European Central Bank are often cited as examples where independent decision-making has supported long-term economic growth and stability.

Challenges in Selecting a New Central Bank Chairman

Delayed Decision in the Selection Process

The independent committee responsible for selecting a new Bank of Thailand board chairman has faced delays, citing the need for more time to evaluate the candidates. This delay has raised concerns among economists and financial experts, as the role of the board chairman is crucial in shaping the future of Thailand’s monetary policies.

Importance of Political Independence in the Role

Nonarit described the board chairman as a “super CEO” who must remain free from political influences. The position requires forward-thinking and the ability to analyze economic issues through the lens of academic research. Open dialogue between the central bank and the government is necessary to address differing perspectives and to evaluate the impact of proposed economic policies.

Private Sector’s Concerns and Expectations

Confidence Among Stakeholders

A source from the banking industry highlighted the importance of selecting a new board chairman who can instill confidence in the private sector, including businesses, investors, and the public. The banking industry is eager to see cooperation between the central bank and the government, particularly in implementing fiscal and monetary policies that will aid Thailand’s economic recovery.

Focus on Vulnerable Groups

The private sector has also expressed concern over the country’s high levels of household debt. Economists agree that addressing this issue will require close coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities. Vulnerable groups, such as low-income earners and those heavily burdened by debt, must be prioritized in these efforts.

Influence Over Key Monetary Policy Decisions

Role in Selecting the Next Governor

While the new board chairman may not be directly responsible for day-to-day operations, the position holds significant sway over major decisions, including the selection of the next central bank governor after Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput’s term ends in September 2025. This decision will have a lasting impact on Thailand’s future economic strategies.

Policy Rate and Government Stimulus Measures

The Pheu Thai-led government is pushing for a central bank policy rate cut to align with its stimulus measures aimed at boosting the Thai economy. While the board chairman does not directly set policy rates, the position can indirectly influence decisions that shape the overall economic climate. This raises concerns about whether political pressure could affect the bank’s autonomy in the long term.

Market Concerns Over Policy Coordination

Balancing Monetary and Fiscal Policies

Gun Hathaisattha, equity strategist at CGS International Securities (Thailand), noted that market watchers are closely following the central bank’s leadership selection. Improved coordination between monetary and fiscal policies is expected to help Thailand navigate its economic challenges.

Potential Risks of Downgrades

Rising tensions between the Bank of Thailand and the Finance Ministry could lead to a potential downgrade in Thailand’s credit rating. This is particularly concerning if the government’s 10,000-baht cash handout program fails to stimulate the economy as anticipated. If the handout proves ineffective, the burden on public debt could grow, increasing the risk of a downgrade.

Future of Thailand’s Monetary Policy

Possible Rate Cut in the Fourth Quarter

Economists predict that the Bank of Thailand may implement a policy rate cut in the fourth quarter of the year. A downgrade in the country’s GDP growth would likely provide more justification for such a move. The decision is expected to be made at either the October or December monetary policy meeting.

Conclusion

The independence of the Bank of Thailand is critical for maintaining economic stability and fostering long-term growth. Economists and private sector leaders are urging for the appointment of a politically independent board chairman to ensure the central bank can operate without external pressures. As the nation navigates its economic recovery, cooperation between monetary and fiscal policies will be key to ensuring Thailand’s economic health.

Business

Thailand Commits to Becoming an AI Learning Hub

Published

2 weeks ago

December 5, 2024

Wadi

Ministers Announce Plans for AI Governance Collaboration

Thailand is dedicated to advancing global trust in artificial intelligence (AI) governance and establishing itself as a learning hub for AI through collaboration with UNESCO, according to Prasert Jantararuangthong, the Minister of Digital Economy and Society (DES). This initiative aims to enhance the ethical application of AI technologies while fostering skilled professionals in the field.

Goals for AI Workforce Development

The Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation (MHESI) has set ambitious goals to increase the number of AI-skilled workers by adding 30,000 engineers over the next three years. This plan includes generating 100 AI innovations valued at 40 billion baht and promoting AI adoption across 600 agencies nationwide.

Significant Increase in AI Adoption Rates

According to the AI Readiness Measurement 2024 report by the Electronic Transactions Development Agency and the National Science and Technology Development Agency, AI adoption plans among Thai organizations have reached 73.3%, reflecting an increase of nearly 20 percentage points year-on-year. This surge indicates a growing recognition of the importance of AI in various sectors.

Hosting the UNESCO Global Forum on AI Ethics

On Wednesday, the DES Ministry, MHESI, the Education Ministry, and UNESCO announced their partnership to host the 3rd UNESCO Global Forum on the Ethics of AI 2025, themed “Ethical Governance of AI in Motion.” This event is scheduled to take place from June 24 to 27, 2025, in Bangkok and will serve as a platform for knowledge exchange and collaboration on AI governance.

Commitment to Ethical AI Implementation

Prasert emphasized that Thailand’s commitment aligns with UNESCO’s AI Readiness Assessment framework, which is recognized globally. The country has recently introduced key frameworks such as the AI Governance Guideline for Executives and the Generative AI Governance Guideline for Organizations. These resources aim to ensure responsible and transparent implementation of AI at all organizational levels.

Multilateral Collaboration for Developing Countries

The upcoming forum is expected to foster multilateral collaboration and build AI governance capacity in developing countries. It highlights Thailand’s dedication to global trust in AI governance while positioning itself as a leader in ethical AI practices.

Integration of AI Technologies Across Industries

Suphachai Jaismut, vice-minister for MHESI, stated that Thailand is prepared to integrate AI technologies across various industries, driven by a commitment to advancing research and development (R&D). This integration is crucial as Southeast Asia’s digital economy continues to grow rapidly.

Addressing Challenges in the Digital Economy

While advancements in AI infrastructure are promising, challenges such as the digital divide and job displacement due to automation remain significant concerns. Xing Qu, deputy director-general for UNESCO, emphasized that building peace through education, science, and culture is vital in an era where AI increasingly influences societies and economies.

Business

Thailand to Finalise Free Trade Agreement with EFTA by January 2024

Published

3 weeks ago

December 1, 2024

Ashley Wings

Thailand is preparing to finalise a landmark Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) by January 2024. The agreement marks Thailand’s first FTA with a European trade bloc and is expected to bolster exports, attract investments, and enhance Thailand’s position in the global economy.

EFTA Partnership: A Milestone in Thailand’s Trade Strategy

Who Are EFTA Members?

The EFTA comprises Switzerland, Norway, Iceland, and Liechtenstein, offering Thailand access to lucrative European markets.

Commerce Minister Pichai Naripthaphan highlighted the FTA’s importance, describing it as a pivotal step for economic growth and trade expansion.

“This is Thailand’s inaugural FTA with a European bloc, setting a precedent for modern trade standards and sustainable development goals,” said Pichai.

Comprehensive Scope of the Agreement

What Does the FTA Cover?

The FTA includes 15 broad areas designed to modernise trade relations and foster sustainable development. Key areas include:

Trade in Goods
Rules of Origin
Investment Opportunities
Trade Facilitation
Intellectual Property Rights
Sustainability and SMEs Development

Future Expansion Opportunities

The FTA is seen as a stepping stone toward future trade agreements with other significant partners, including the European Union, advancing Thailand’s global trade ambitions.

Economic Impact of the Thailand-EFTA Trade Partnership

Surging Trade Figures

Between January and October 2023, trade between Thailand and the EFTA exceeded US$10 billion, accounting for 2.03% of Thailand’s global trade and reflecting a 23.22% year-on-year growth.

Key Thai Exports and Imports

Exports to EFTA: Jewellery, watches, canned seafood, machinery, cosmetics, and rice.
Imports from EFTA: Gems, gold, pharmaceuticals, scientific equipment, and fresh seafood.

The agreement is expected to further diversify and increase Thailand’s trade portfolio.

Next Steps: Approval and Implementation

High-Level Signing at WEF Davos

The FTA will be presented to the Thai Cabinet for approval before its official signing at the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland, in January 2024. Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Commerce Minister Pichai will attend the signing ceremony.

Ratification and Rollout

Following Parliamentary approval, the agreement will be ratified, paving the way for implementation and significant contributions to Thailand’s GDP growth.

A Strategic Vision for Thailand’s Future

The Thailand-EFTA Free Trade Agreement aligns with Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s vision of positioning Thailand as a global trade hub. By establishing this partnership, Thailand is set to achieve:

Increased export opportunities
Enhanced foreign investment
Strengthened trade ties with Europe

As the January deadline approaches, Thailand’s first European trade agreement symbolizes a bold step toward economic transformation, underscoring its commitment to modernisation, sustainability, and global collaboration.

Business

Thai Airways Secures 44 Billion Baht to Propel Post-Rehabilitation Future

Published

3 weeks ago

December 1, 2024

Ashley Wings

Thai Airways International (THAI) has secured approximately 44 billion baht through a share rights offering, marking a significant milestone in its recovery journey. The move is set to bring the national carrier closer to exiting its court-supervised debt restructuring process and resuming stock trading by mid-2025.

Thai Airways is offering 9.82 billion new shares to existing shareholders at 4.48 baht per share. This capital infusion represents the final phase of its restructuring, aimed at ensuring financial stability and market re-entry.

“This marks a critical step before the airline resumes operations as a publicly traded entity,” said a Cabinet source.

Government’s Role: Strategic Investment Without State Enterprise Status

Maintaining a National Flag Carrier

The Thai government has announced plans to increase its investment in Thai Airways while ensuring it does not revert to a state enterprise.

Current Stake: The Finance Ministry holds 47.9% of THAI shares.
Post-Restructuring: The ministry, the Vayupak Fund, and the Government Savings Bank will collectively own around 40% of the airline.

“This structure ensures Thai Airways remains a national flag carrier while avoiding direct state control,” confirmed Finance Minister Pichai Chunhavajira.

Debt Conversion and Shareholder Dynamics

Debt-to-Equity Swap Secures Creditor Support

Thai Airways’ creditors have agreed to convert approximately 53 billion baht of debt into equity as part of the rehabilitation plan. This move aligns with THAI’s efforts to stabilize its financial position.

The Council of State approved the recapitalization as a legitimate component of the restructuring process.
Despite debates over the Finance Ministry’s voting rights during the creditor meetings, officials clarified that the debt-to-equity swap remains incomplete, allowing the ministry to retain creditor status.

Path to Recovery

THAI is expected to exit rehabilitation by February 2025.
The airline plans to resume stock trading by May 2025, paving the way for a return to the public market.

Broader Implications for Thai Airways

Strengthened Financial Position

The successful share rights offering bolsters Thai Airways’ financial resilience, ensuring the airline’s ability to navigate post-rehabilitation challenges.

National Pride and Strategic Vision

The government’s balanced approach highlights its commitment to preserving Thai Airways’ status as a national carrier while encouraging operational independence.

Soaring Toward a Brighter Future

Thai Airways’ 44 billion baht share rights offering symbolizes its steady progress toward financial recovery and operational excellence. With strong government support and strategic restructuring, the airline is poised to regain its position as a leading player in the global aviation market by 2025. This pivotal moment underscores THAI’s resilience and its importance to Thailand’s economic and cultural identity.